Recent spaghetti models indicate that Tropical Storm Erin, which meteorologists warn has the potential to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday, is unlikely to directly hit the U.S. coast. Forecasters say Erin could develop into the first major hurricane of the 2025 season.

As of the latest update, issued at 4 a.m. CDT Thursday, Tropical Storm Erin was located about 990 miles east of the Leeward Islands and was on a path to the west at 17 mph. (The next update will come later this morning, and updates will become more frequent once watches and warnings go into effect for the storm.)

Tropical Storm Erin has begun to strengthen and is expected to reach major hurricane intensity this weekend as it tracks just north of the Caribbean islands, where it could bring rain, gusty winds and high surf.