Japan had long maintained deep economic ties with both China and the United States. Recent trade tensions may challenge that approach.

Caveats: It’s still very early in Trump’s global trade war. And a company could theoretically blame the tariffs publicly for reductions it had planned before he took office. Watch for Securities and Exchange Commission filings, where there are penalties for not being truthful.

The US is no longer China's biggest export market: that spot now belongs to South East Asia. In fact China was the largest trading partner for 60 countries in 2023 - nearly twice as many as the US. The world's biggest exporter, it made a record surplus of $1tn at the end of 2024.