The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has warned that Tropical Storm Erin is expected to strengthen and could become a major hurricane over the weekend as it shifts just north of the northern Leeward Islands, raising the risk of flash floods, landslides and life-threatening sea swells.

Erin, the first hurricane of the season, exploded to a Category 5 hurricane Saturday, and despite fluctuations in intensity, the storm is remaining formidable this weekend. Here's where it could head in the week ahead.

Erin is producing maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) and a central pressure of 940 mb. The storm is moving west‑northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h). Outer rainbands have been producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico since Saturday night.

A westward-moving tropical wave could produce an area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic late in the week of Aug. 18, the hurricane center said on Aug. 16. The center shows a 20% chance of storm formation over the next week.